COVID-19 deaths compared with “Swine Flu”


Pandemic, as the definition goes, is the worldwide spread of a new disease. Most of the historical analysis point to those in younger age groups being disproportionately affected in a pandemic. As opposed to seasonal outbreaks where older people are more likely to be affected.

The data support the theory that the current epidemic is a late seasonal effect in the Northern  Hemisphere on the back of a mild ILI season. The age structure of those most affected does not fit the evidence from previous pandemics.

The outbreak does, however, fit with the  WHO’s definition of a  Pandemic. This definition does not help explain the age structure of those most affected, and how this differs from that of seasonal outbreaks. The definition of a pandemic remains elusive.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020