Alex Berenson Tweets

Summary: 

Math is hard. Don’t harsh his buzz. If we told him that when the denominator (the one on the bottom) is bigger, the fraction gets...smaller, it might be enough for him to figure out that saying “we don’t test enough asymptotic people” means a higher percentage recovered.

The failure of people to understand basic math and logic has reached peak stupidity. Almost any exchange on Twitter devolves into a recognition few can pass remedial math.

Two weeks ago, the media missed the failure of the models. Last week, it missed the emptying of hospitals nationwide. What will it miss this week?

Btw - here are NY state numbers for new hospitalizations, ICU beds, and intubations, all now - and this is with hospitals coding every possible case as #COVID because of the 20% bonus. Nobody who needs a bed is getting sent home, there is no triage

I am going to follow up with data directly from Sweden but it appears deaths are plunging - not a shock, given the ICU trends. Recall, Sweden has no lockdown. Deaths per-capita have been far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain, just higher than other Nordic countries.

Bauchman  Germany joins China and Taiwan in concluding that COVID-19 rarely spreads through casual contact It spreads through repeated, large doses, such as you get while sheltering in place.  Of course, this neatly explains the pattern of outbreaks: Wuhan (not China) Kirkland (not Seattle) Queens (not Manhattan) Daegu (not Seoul) Lombardy (not Rome) Bunch of cruise ships.  

4-12-20  Social Distancing This paper from ​@Taiwan_CDC   came out March 19 and has received no attention. It tracked 1000 contacts of 32 people with #COVID2019 and found NO - yes, ZERO - cases of transmission outside of households or families. In other words, it provides NO evidence social distancing helps.

4/14 Now @NYCMayor  says the city will count people who died “indirectly” from #COVID in its ever-rising death counts. What does that even mean? Can we assume every person who dies in NYC will be counted as a virus death unless proven otherwise? And how far back will the backdating go?

4/14 That’s just a colossal failure with terrible consequences. The hard question is why, and what to do next. But pretending that the answer is “the lock downs worked” WHEN THE MODEL EXPLICITLY ACCOUNTED FOR LOCK DOWNS is simply an insult to every ​@nytimes  reader, and everyone else. 

At this point ​@nytimes  is just making stuff up. Where is the data that lock downs have slowed the spread of #COVID?   Looking at Japan and Sweden, which have no lock downs, provides no evidence...And meanwhile Italy - which locked down early and hard - has been suffering for a month - multiple cycles of viral transmission. It is possible voluntary social distancing has a positive effect. Right now a fair look at the evidence suggests that lock downs are at best useless...And at worst do more harm than good by driving intrafamilial and nosocomial transmission and preventing health authorities from focusing on and protecting the elderly, who are really at risk.

The folks I see when I'm shopping at @walmart , they're not panicking. They're just trying to have a decent Easter with their families, figure out who will watch their kids with the schools closed, pay the rent - and they are well aware that no one lives forever.

Two weeks ago, the media missed the failure of the models. Last week, it missed the emptying of hospitals nationwide. What will it miss this week?

Btw - here are NY state numbers for new hospitalizations, ICU beds, and intubations, all now - and this is with hospitals coding every possible case as #COVID because of the 20% bonus. Nobody who needs a bed is getting sent home, there is no triage

I am going to follow up with data directly from Sweden but it appears deaths are plunging - not a shock, given the ICU trends. Recall, Sweden has no lockdown. Deaths per-capita have been far lower than the U.K., Italy, France, or Spain, just higher than other Nordic countries.

Bauchman  Germany joins China and Taiwan in concluding that COVID-19 rarely spreads through casual contact It spreads through repeated, large doses, such as you get while sheltering in place.  Of course, this neatly explains the pattern of outbreaks: Wuhan (not China) Kirkland (not Seattle) Queens (not Manhattan) Daegu (not Seoul) Lombardy (not Rome) Bunch of cruise ships.  

4-12-20  Social Distancing This paper from ​@Taiwan_CDC   came out March 19 and has received no attention. It tracked 1000 contacts of 32 people with #COVID2019 and found NO - yes, ZERO - cases of transmission outside of households or families. In other words, it provides NO evidence social distancing helps.

Date: 
Wednesday, April 1, 2020